At the start of 2023, real estate is a more dynamic market than ever, which continues to rise or fall according to the criteria analyzed. In question, inflation, the energy crisis, the war in Ukraine, the decline in purchasing power, the end of the pandemic… So many reasons which can explain the movements of the Lyon real estate market. Our Lyon concierge analyzes these figures and explains to you what impact they can have on seasonal rentals.
Real estate in Lyon: the rental market still tight
All real estate professionals assure us that in 2023 the market will be dynamic despite inflation. According to Pascal Pancrazio, real estate agent in Charbonnières and president of the Rhône Chamber of Fnaim, “we have rather positive indicators for the approaching second quarter”. Real estate agents are seeing strong demand in particular for small areas, while it is more complicated for large areas to rent or sell. Some accommodations even find themselves with nearly 200 applications on a T1, something unheard of for many professionals. The threat of a shortage of small-scale housing grows a little more each week.
What are the reasons that cause such movements? “There is an effect with the supervision of rents, the new standards of the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) with housing which is thermal sieves and therefore unsaleable or exits from the market” explains Pascal Pancrazio to the media Actu Lyon. This affects supply and demand, thereby creating an imbalance. Therefore, the real estate agent estimates that many students will not be able to find accommodation. The regulations concerning thermal sieves also pose a problem: “today there are nearly 930 homes in the Rhône, of which 000 are to be renovated, it's enormous”, observes Pascal Pancrazio.
Housing prices: figures for early 2023
As for homes for purchase, the market is experiencing a slight slowdown at the start of the year. Although prices are becoming “realistic” again, Lyon remains in the top three of the most expensive cities in France with Paris. According to a study by the Meilleurs Agents site, the biggest drop in prices is still in the capital of Gaul, with a drop of 3,3% since the start of the year. "This bearish reaction is not abnormal and on the contrary testifies to the healthy nature of the market which is adjusting to new economic and banking conditions", indicates Meilleurs Agents.
Regarding rents for rental apartments, rents have changed very slightly to reach €14 per m², i.e. a minimal increase of 0,1%. Despite the introduction of a rent control measure a year and a half ago, the results are mixed. At the end of 2021, more than half of the real estate advertisements in Lyon and Villeurbanne were still online and above the new reference thresholds. Even today, thousands of ads are potentially above the rent cap threshold and therefore illegal.
What impact on seasonal rentals?
Rising house prices
Between 2019 and 2022, seasonal rental accommodation increased in Lyon, as in the majority of cities in France. The AirDNA site, which analyzes statistical data specific to the AirBNB site, found an increase of 30 to 40%. "Once again, it's supply and demand that are unbalanced," analyzes Anthony Quang, director of our Lyon concierge. There are a lot of rental requests, and although the supply of tourist accommodation is substantial, it is not always enough to satisfy everyone”. Today on AirBNB, more than 1 accommodations are available for rent, for prices ranging on average between 000 and 50€ per night.
Very restrictive regulations
Last year, the Metropolis of Lyon chose to toughen the regulations to regulate seasonal rentals. Faced with ever-increasing pressure on the housing market, the regulations governing this type of rental are now much heavier. A compensation system has thus been set up for lessor owners. The new regulations follow the first measures that were taken in 2018 by the community with the establishment of a maximum number of nights in seasonal rentals. Beyond 120 per year, the owner must declare a change of use of the accommodation.
Since June 1, the regulations are even stricter for the hypercentre of the city. The principle of compensation, already restrictive at the outset, here obliges a landlord to offer another dwelling on a long-term lease. But here, this property must correspond to a housing creation, which means that the owner must transform a craft or commercial premises into housing, and it must not be located on the ground floor. In the event of non-compliance with the rules, the short-term rental control brigade, set up by the town hall of Lyon, can thus impose fines. Thus, an owner who rented his apartment without authorization was forced to pay a fine of 21 euros.
Real estate in Lyon: what ways to avoid the worst?
How to solve housing problems in Lyon? For many professionals in the sector, the answer is simple: there is a lack of housing. “Even if the amount of rents does not explode, rental tension is an explosive subject in France, especially in large cities like Lyon”, notes Jean-Michel Camizon, the president of the Clameur rent observatory (Acronym of: Knowing Rents and Analyzing Markets in Urban and Rural Spaces). The pressure on tenants is such that renting accommodation in Lyon in 2023 risks becoming a real hassle.
According to the federation of property developers in Lyon, only 2 new homes were sold in Lyon in 551, the worst year for ten years. This represents a drop of 2022% compared to 17 and 2021% compared to 43. “Fewer new constructions means many fewer new homes on the rental market. About 2019% of new apartments sold are intended for rental,” adds Jean-Michel Camizon. Still according to the federation, at least 30 new homes would be needed to meet the demographic growth of the metropolis of Lyon, without taking into account the deficit accumulated in recent years.
Real estate in Lyon: the old park also in danger
Even the dwellings in the old stock are subject to rental tension. The number of dwellings is also reduced because the owners decide to sell: "As soon as the lease is over, they put them up for sale either because they cannot balance their investment because of the rent control, explains Patrick Lozano , the president of Unis Lyon-Rhône, a union of real estate professionals. The imminent arrival of rental bans for thermal colanders does not help matters. As a reminder, dwellings whose DPE is rated F and G will be banned from renting respectively in 2028 and 2025, unless they are renovated.
Energy renovation is indeed another reason for concern. "We agree to fight against thermal sieves, but the timetable set is not tenable," said Patrick Lozano. From January 1, 2025, housing classified G by the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) can no longer be rented out, then it will be the turn of housing labeled F from January 2028. Given the increase in the cost materials, supply difficulties and the lack of manpower, the president of the Unis Lyon Rhône calls for a delay of at least five years in the measures provided for by the Climate and Resilience law to give a little air to landlords.
The real estate market in Lyon analyzed by our concierge Lyon
According to Anthony Quang, director of our Concierge Lyon, there is a certain tension at all levels on the Lyon rental market: “We are seeing a large number of difficulties in many areas, particularly rental. Supply is far below demand and many people are struggling to find housing. Although seasonal rentals are not directly singled out, we note that the restrictive measures put in place, which are intended to prevent too great an imbalance, do not necessarily have an effect.
Although the situation is not dramatic, it remains worrying. If the price of housing remains stable, we are nevertheless heading towards increased tension in the rental market, the fault of a lack of year-round housing, while the regulation of furnished tourist accommodation is not enough to stem the tensions. The rest of 2023 will confirm or invalidate the trend, hoping that the situation will improve with the summer season.
